A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
